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, by Brian Livingston
Ebook Free , by Brian Livingston
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Product details
File Size: 21541 KB
Print Length: 448 pages
Publisher: BenBella Books (October 9, 2018)
Publication Date: October 9, 2018
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B07B26498J
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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#145,875 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
First off I want to say that I really hated to give two stars for the incredible amount of work that went into developing this book, but in the end there was no 2.5 star rating so here we are. There are of course many Facts in the book that are absolutely true, at least IMO. Some of these are the following: Don’t play unwinnable games against the supercomputers of Wall Street, Constructing a portfolio that grows steadily while minimizing risk is a skill that even many paid investment advisers haven’t mastered, There are no experts that can predict the future, No one guarantees simulated results, No one can predict the future, Recognize the damage that jumping from one strategy to another based on short-term results can cause, Refrain from market timing.Let’s stop on that last fact for a moment as this book is certainly about market timing as both I and Investopedia define it. You can look it up yourself and “drill down†on its definition of “technical indicators†(namely the short-term total returns of your basket of “trading ETFs†that are used to switch in and out of investments). Some call the methods of this book Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA). The author calls it Momentum investing and that along with the fact that there is no “real†long-term data that can support it because the ETFs used have not existed that long has landed this book (at least for me) into the land of “just another active trading scheme which looks good on paper.†Also, a point which should not be lost on the readers is the fact that if the implementation of this strategy were to be carried out by one thousand investors they would get 1000 different results and I fear the standard deviation of the results would not be insignificant. The reasons being they are trading on 20-22 different trading days of the month and the fact is even with transaction free accounts, trading costs accrue with the bid/ask spread in the ETF price, which in a commodity ETF like PDBC can be significant if the liquidity is low at the time you want to trade. The “luck†of the day of the month you pick can significantly affect your results on a quick drop like what happened in Oct. of 1987, (more on this later.) While on the subject of the ETF PDBC, from the Invesco website it is clear this is an ETF based on Futures contracts and SWAPs and in my opinion I would NEVER put one-third of my investments in this vehicle. By the way if your trading day happened to be today (17th of Oct) your screen for the Papa Bear Portfolio has you switching into PDBC. All I can say to that is I hope it works out for you. See my screen details in the image attached.Let me finish with a few good things in the book that have nothing to do with Momentum investing. Chapters 8 on compounding, 9 on diversification, 11 on don’t give your money to Wall Street banks, 14 your brain on money, 17 use bargain brokerages, 20 don’t step on virtual land mines along the road of life, 21 & 22 Social Security and Safe withdrawal rates.I have a bit of a problem with Chap 19 and advice to do Roth conversions between ages 55-69. I have written much on this subject and most books on this subject is misguided at best. In most all cases you will find that in real terms you won’t need more Roth money in retirement and that Roth money that was converted at a higher tax rate now has to be spent in a lower tax bracket in retirement, thus leaving you with less spendable income. Roth does have some uses in retirement, but it is not superior to the IRA over the whole span of your working and retirement career, in most cases.In conclusion the author’s premise of the book is that if you achieve two-thirds the gain of the S&P 500’s total return during bull markets and limit losses to half that of the S&P 500 during bear markets you will outperform over complete bull-bear cycles. I say, “well it depends on the length of those cycles.†Attached is the image of two trends, which is made up of market data on the one hand and a muscular portfolio that tracks 50% of the losses and two-thirds of the gains for two market cycles, which have been “gene-spliced†together. One is the 30% Market crash of 1987 and bull run to Dec 2000, while the second (spliced onto the first) it the Dec 2008 bear market, followed to Mar 2009 and the bull market to Dec of 2017. The results are striking. From a $10,000 starting balance in each the S&P 500 went to $121,841, while the Muscular Portfolio with gains as described above went to $64,000. I hope for the author’s sake he can get a little more than two-thirds of the market gains because that may not cut it. Unfortunately, he hasn't been in this strategy since the 2009 bottom, so it may be another 15 years before we really know. In my opinion most investors should stick to a good passive strategy that is keyed to their risk tolerance.
Contains much general investing information which is often more timely than in many places. I loved the bank-by-bank breakdown of fines paid for unethical behaviors, now totalling over $150B! GSachs receives close attention but sadly not including the latest 1MDB scandal. I did find the book less well organized than I would have liked but in some ways a breath of fresh air.
This is a wonderful book, filled with carefully written advice, along with a rich background of detail, guidance, recent financial scholarship, and cautionary flags. Here’s a workable way to remove pesky emotions and poor judgement from your investment decisions. It’s refreshing to encounter an exposition of an investing strategy that is forthright, unambiguous and honest. The reader benefits when the author converts state of the art theory into a very concrete strategy, and tells the evolution of expert thinking that has led to it. In the process, he shows the reader that momentum can act as a predictive factor (upsetting modern portfolio theory, or MPT) as he unveils a clearly drawn prescription making it actually work. To do this, he deals clearly with notions of asset classes, key time intervals, choice of best etf candidates for portfolio design, and a metric and strategy for capturing momentum onto your personal balance sheet. It sounds perhaps complicated but really isn’t, and, as a bonus, makes for asorbing reading. Taking a long term time horizon, he ticks off and debunks many myths that linger on, and rarely makes his points without vivid evidence. I found it amusing to discover that many of the things I wanted to do, such as weaving in my own favored variations, changing this and that element of the strategy, cooking up my own tweaks, juicing the month’s portfolio by throwing in an off strategy trade— these the author would, presumably, slap my wrists for. But, this aside, the author provides a real and valuable service, for which a debt of gratitude is deserved.
This is an amazing book and one which carries my highest recommendation. I have been trading the markets since the 60s and have a large library of books, indeed I have written a few myself. I can easily recognize the incredible amount of work that went into publishing this book which carries so much information and manages to present it in an interesting and colorful way with many full-page illustrations.I intend to get copies to interested family members and I can recommend it to all those who seek to profit from the market in a well disciplined and unstressful manner. Dr. Humphrey
Let me be honest, I’m in the majority group of people out there who know very little about investing. I’m not looking for a quick buck and don’t have the patience nor the time to learn everything about investing to become a professional. I'm able to gain a solid plan and feel confident to start investing in about 30 mins after reading the book. This is pretty sweet since I would have no idea what to invest let alone manage them overtime.This book makes it dead simple to follow in the first few chapters to start investing backed by historical facts in easy to understand narratives.There are surprises and fun little tidbits sprinkled on every headline to keep the pages turning. By all means read every page from cover to cover. Although you need not be in a hurry or wait until you have turned every page. The strategies in the book are geared towards a few simple principles while you observe and make small adjustments to your investments over time.This book is such a small price to pay and a lot to gain in personal finance and wealth management. Why give your money away to some 3rd party wall street giants when you can trust yourself to do a better job with just a few minutes of your time. Get the book.
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April 04, 2011
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